{"id":4080,"date":"2025-03-18T03:12:25","date_gmt":"2025-03-18T03:12:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/rlgslsb.haifa.ac.il\/?p=4080"},"modified":"2025-03-18T03:12:25","modified_gmt":"2025-03-18T03:12:25","slug":"will-king-abdullah-remove-trumps-weights","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rlgslsb.haifa.ac.il\/en\/2025\/03\/will-king-abdullah-remove-trumps-weights\/","title":{"rendered":"Will King Abdullah Remove Trump\u2019s Weights?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Prior to the dramatic developments in Syria, King Abdullah II of Jordan was primarily concerned with President-elect Donald Trump\u2019s imminent entry into the White House. It could be said that Jordan was severely scorched by Trump twice\u2014first when he initiated a change in the status quo on the Temple Mount by replacing Jordan with an all-Muslim council called the \u201cWisaya\u201d (patronage), which stripped the Hashemites of their exclusive responsibility for Islamic holy sites and added Saudi Arabia and other powers, presumably Indonesia.<\/span><\/p>\n

The second instance was the establishment of the Palestinian state within expanded Areas A and B borders with an additional 10% of Area C. The Jordanians saw this as a scheme to foil the establishment of a real the Palestinian state in the East Bank, and when the Abraham Accords were signed as a result of Trump\u2019s plan, <\/span>Jordan opposed them<\/span><\/a> and refused to participate in the resulting economic conferences.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s return to the arena required Jordan to recalculate its course, as evidenced in <\/span>King Abdullah II\u2019s throne speech<\/span><\/a> before the Jordanian Parliament. He made several important statements, and equally important was how Jordanian commentators interpreted his words, presumably as \u201cofficial interpretation.\u201d <\/span>The key statement in his speech was that Jordan would not take dangerous gambles, meaning it would not clash with Trump as Jordan did previously, when its strong opposition to his \u201cDeal of the Century\u201d was among the factors that led to its failure. <\/span>The second thread in the King\u2019s speech was the need for economic innovation and nurturing the young Jordanian generation, and for the first time, he also based Jordanian\u2013Palestinian relations on economic cooperation.<\/span><\/p>\n

While he reiterated the official Jordanian position supporting \u201ca Palestinian state within 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital,\u201d he added a new element: \u201cIn the absence of a political solution horizon, this should not prevent continued economic assistance to our Palestinian brothers to strengthen their \u2018sumud\u2019 (steadfastness), to establish their legitimate rights. Since we are closest to them, we will work to make them our primary partners in regional development programs, and will not help marginalize them\u2026 we will prepare them to be economically capable, which will not be a substitute for the political solution.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

In other words: economic interest takes precedence over the political solution. While Jordan has not retreated from its demand for a Palestinian state, and so forth, \u201cin the absence of a horizon,\u201d priority will be given to the economic option, in which Jordan will support Palestinians\u2019 economic advancement.<\/span><\/p>\n

These statements align with another emphasis by the King. Economic advancement will be on a regional scale, and Jordan will participate in all regional economic initiatives, or in the King\u2019s words: \u201cJordan will utilize its geo-strategic location to build broad Arab and regional partnerships that will achieve common interests for the benefit of our national achievements.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

According to <\/span>Arab analysts<\/span><\/a>, the practical interpretation of these statements is that, unlike in the past, Jordan will not boycott the Abraham Accords\u2019 economic conferences, and one might add\u2014will bring the Palestinians, who also boycotted these conferences, along with them.<\/span><\/p>\n

The King did not explicitly mention the Abraham Accords, but it stands to reason that he was referring to new relations with Saudi Arabia.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, much like a suspense film, after the King decided to align with the Abraham Accords and guide the Palestinians along an economic trajectory, President Trump introduced the destabilizing variable of compelling Jordan to absorb a portion of Gazans evacuated from the devastated Strip, inducing significant anxiety in the monarch.<\/span><\/p>\n

To comprehend this reaction, one must analyze Jordan\u2019s demographic sensitivity, where the Bedouin minority, which controls both military and government administration, categorically rejects any new wave of Palestinian migration, particularly Gazans indoctrinated by Muslim Brotherhood ideology.<\/span><\/p>\n

Such migration would strengthen the Muslim Brotherhood, which, combined with Abu Mohammed al-Jolani\u2019s threat from Syria, would supplement the Iranian threat with Sunni radicalism as factors undermining the already fragile stability of the kingdom. Whether this serves Israeli interests remains an unresolved variable.<\/span><\/p>\n

While Jordan was preparing for regional partnerships in face of Trump\u2019s advent, the Muslim Brotherhood\u2019s takeover of Syria increased the vitality of regional connections among Brotherhood opponents, to establish a wall against the danger of an \u201cAmman Flood\u201d that could burst forth from Syria and sweep away the Hashemite kingdom.<\/span><\/p>\n

First and foremost is Saudi Arabia. The thread connecting Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf states is opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood. The Gulf states have designated them as a terrorist organization, Saudi Arabia expelled them from its territory, and anyone known as a Hamas member was also thrown in prison. As for Egypt\u2019s relationship with the Brotherhood movement, nothing needs to be added. After tasting Morsi\u2019s presidency, it doesn\u2019t want a second serving.<\/span><\/p>\n

Egypt was the first, even immediately, to identify the danger in Damascus\u2019s new regime and came out strongly against it, especially after <\/span>identifying senior Gamaa\u2019at leaders<\/span><\/a> of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt in the leadership of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, including activists who fled Egypt to Turkey, who established the al-Qaeda network, together with Hamas, in Sinai, which Egypt barely managed to overcome, if at all.<\/span><\/p>\n

Until now, Jordan has differed from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf on their approach to the Muslim Brotherhood. Unlike them, the Brotherhood is allowed to operate in Jordan as the official party \u201cAction Party\u201d (Hizb al-Amal) and were even considered <\/span>allies<\/span><\/a> of the crown for many years; in the recent elections, it achieved <\/span>great success<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Until now, while the Muslim Brotherhood\u2019s leadership was \u201cJordanian,\u201d their main power came from Palestinians in Amman. However, recent developments must worry Israel: the connection of large Bedouin tribes, especially the Sakhr tribe serving in the Jordanian army, to them, as evidenced by tribal leaders\u2019 participation in Brotherhood assemblies in Amman.<\/span><\/p>\n

Israel contributed to these developments in two aspects. First, the Bedouins are aware of the danger that Israel <\/span>might initiate a transfer<\/span><\/a> of Palestinians from the West Bank to the East Bank, and they won\u2019t allow strengthening Palestinian demographics at their expense. Their alliance with the Brotherhood was meant to warn Israel against implementing the transfer. Another contribution to the Bedouin-Brotherhood connection came from Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked, who, out of \u201cgovernance\u201d sentiments, issued a deportation order for the great Sheikh of the Sakhr tribe, Turad al-Fayez, when he spoke nonsense at a <\/span>sulha (reconciliation) in Hebron<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

I believe that since this insult, the King\u2019s Bedouin soldiers have been less stringent in border protection, enabling the flow of weapons to terror cells in the West Bank. <\/span>If the Muslim Brotherhood was emboldened by their electoral success and the backing they received from the tribes, the King delivered them a hidden warning in his speech\u2014he praised the \u201cpragmatic\u201d freedom of action in Jordan and had the entire Jordanian military command stand up for applause. <\/span>This can be understood as a veiled warning to the Brotherhood not to exceed the bounds of \u201cpragmatic\u201d political activity, otherwise\u2014everyone saw the Jordanian army standing at attention\u2026.<\/span><\/p>\n

If this was a warning before the regime change in Syria, it is even more applicable now, especially as the <\/span>strengthening ties<\/span><\/a> between Abu Mohammad al-Jolani and Khaled Mashal become clearer. <\/span>Khaled Mashal was expelled from Jordan, and now he watches it from the north. Anyone who thinks the Mashal-Jolani duo isn\u2019t plotting to overthrow the King probably lives in Switzerland.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Hashemites have historical memory, and they know that Erdo\u011fan, seeking to renew the Ottoman Empire, also has historical memory, remembering that it was the Hashemites who brought down the empire in alliance with the British. <\/span>This is in addition to the jubilant declarations of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leaders when they liberated the Great Umayyad Mosque from Shiite grab, that the next targets are al-Aqsa, Mecca, and the Prophet\u2019s Mosque in Medina. And the road there passes through Amman\u2026 The Saudis have noted this, and one needn\u2019t guess that soon they will begin to consolidate opposition to the regime, and they will need Jordan\u2019s help, meaning that the lines the King drew in the throne speech before Syria\u2019s upheaval will only intensify severalfold now.<\/span><\/p>\n

In conclusion, Jordan\u2019s preparation for regional changes began with concerns about Trump. The answer was to flow with Trump in terms of regional cooperation. Since there is no \u201cpolitical horizon\u201d for the Palestinian issue, Palestinians should be included in stimulating economic development on both banks. <\/span>Now, with the Muslim Brotherhood camping at their northern border, Jordan will be Saudi Arabia\u2019s shield, and in addition to being a vital buffer zone between Israel and Iraq, it will be a buffer zone between Syria and Saudi Arabia. <\/span>This will cost Saudi Arabia a lot of money, as Jordan\u2019s economic basics\u2014and the Palestinians\u2019\u2014require generous Saudi assistance. Will this also lead to a historic compromise between the two kingdoms over responsibility for al-Aqsa Mosque? Time will tell.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Prior to the dramatic developments in Syria, King Abdullah II of Jordan was primarily concerned with President-elect Donald Trump\u2019s imminent entry into the White House. It could be said that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4080","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-feed"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rlgslsb.haifa.ac.il\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4080","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rlgslsb.haifa.ac.il\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rlgslsb.haifa.ac.il\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rlgslsb.haifa.ac.il\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rlgslsb.haifa.ac.il\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4080"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/rlgslsb.haifa.ac.il\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4080\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rlgslsb.haifa.ac.il\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4080"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rlgslsb.haifa.ac.il\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4080"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rlgslsb.haifa.ac.il\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4080"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}